[Pontoon, Spanish 21] Hit 15

[Pontoon, Spanish 21] Hit 15

  9:51    Japanese Nokkie

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Pontoon Strategy

Is it almost the same as in Blackjack?

In the basic strategy of Pontoon, hitting 15 is recommended when the dealer's face-up card is 7 or stronger.
It's the same strategy as the one in Blackjack.

As a merit of Pontoon, the player wins at hand 21 regardless of the dealer's final hand.
Considering this merit, I guess the result would be better than the one in Blackjack.

Through the experiment, I calculated the winning percentages of the following cases.

1  hit 15 against Dealer's 7
2  hit 15 against Dealer's Ace

This video consists of 10 scenes selected from all.
The playback time is only 5 min.

Result

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data.

It was worse than I had expected.

Compared to the result of the same situation in Blackjack, it was a bit better.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

vs Dealer's 7  24%   vs Dealer's Ace 20%

★Considerations★

When hitting 15 vs D's 7-Ace, we would win at a rate of 20-24%

That's based on the experiments.

The rate range is desperate to us.

If surrender is allowed, it's a good way to avoid an easy defeat.

I mean it's bust.

When hitting 15, the player busted 61 out of the 100 games.

What hopeless hands they are!

I will play in casinos where surrender is allowed.

This time, I didn't conduct the experiment on hitting 16.

Needless to do that, we can guess the winning percentages would be below 20%.

That' all.

Hope it'll help.

Bye.

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[Pontoon, Spanish 21] Double down on 10 & 11.

[Pontoon, Spanish 21] Double down on 10 & 11.

  19:53    Japanese Nokkie

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Pontoon Strategy

Can we get the definite winnings?

This article is NOT about Blackjack, but about Pontoon.

In the basic strategy (BS) of Pontoon, the player's hand is 10 and the dealer's face-up card is 2-8, double down is recommended.

Since 10's cards are not used in Pontoon, the strategy is different from the one in Blackjack.

Following the BS, I wonder how we would win at doubling down.

So I conducted a Pontoon experiment on both 10-doubling vs D6 and 10-doubling vs D8.

One more chart.

When we double down on 11, the BS says that we should do it against the dealer's 2-9.

As well as the 10-doubling, I conducted the experiment on both 11-doubling vs D6 and 11-doubling vs D9.

Then I put together the two kinds of experiment into one video.

This video consists of 23 scenes selected from all.

The former part is about the 10-doubling.

The latter part is about the 11-doubling.

The playback time is about 15 min.

The Result of 10-doubling

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data each.

Is it the rate as you expected?

When the player's hand becomes 12-16 by doubling, he chose surrender.
So the losing rate is high.
Surrender here is generally forfeit.
It's a Pontoon word.

The winning rate except for a tie
as follows:

vs D6 63%    vs D8 40%


The chip's fluctuation

vs D6 +24 chips    vs D8 +3 chips

(Bet Amount: 2 chips every time)

The Result of 11-double

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data each.

We must understand we would lose at a rate of 1/4.

The results of 10-doubling vs D8 is more preferable than this result.

The winning rate except for a tie
as follows:

vs D6 72%    vs D9 52%


The chip's fluctuation

vs D6 +84 chips    vs D9 +44 chips

(Bet Amount: 2 chips every time)

★Considerations★

When doubling down on 10 vs D's 2-8, we would win at a rate of 40-63%.

That's based on the experiment.

Considering no use of 10 cards, I think just hitting 10 is a better way against D's 7 or stronger.

Actually, the player had to choose surrender when his hand became hand 12-16 by doubling, against D's 8.

In the BS, surrender hand 12- 16 by doubling is recommended when the dealer's face-up card is 7 or stronger.

From this and the winning rate, I will double down on 10 against Dealer's 2-6 only.

When doubling down on 11 vs D's 2-9, we would win at a rate of 52-72%.

That's also based on the experiment.

Many players know the dealer's 9 is rather strong.

Some of them hesitate to double down, seeing the card.

However, we shouldn't miss 11-doubling, because it's so special.

Taking a picture card, we definitely win at hand 21.

It's a great merit in Pontoon.

If you fail in doubling, all you have to do is to shout "Surrender."

That's all.

I hope Pontoon will get more popular.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Hit 12

[Blackjack] Hit 12

  18:51    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

It's an annoying hand, isn't it?

As the Blackjack basic strategy shows above, hit is recommended when the player's first hand is 12 and the dealer's face-up card is 2, 3, 7 or stronger.

Although the value difference between hand 11 and hand 12 is only 1 point, hand 12 is much weaker for the player.

I wonder how we would win at hitting 12.

To calculate the winning percentages of both 12 vs D3 and 12 vs DA, I conducted a Blackjack experiment.

This video consists of 20 scenes selected from all.

The playback time is within 10 min.

Result

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data each.

Unfortunately, the busting rate in hitting 12 about 31% in theory.

So the losing probability is quite high.

The result is terrible.
I didn't expect it.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

vs Dealer's 3  30%   vs Dealer's Ace 16%

★Considerations★

If we follow the basic strategy in hitting 12, we would win at a rate of 16-30%.

That's based on the experiments.

The rate range depresses us, doesn't it?

If the dealer's upcard is Ace, can we choose surrender without hesitation?

The player's hand is 12 and it's not really hopeless.

Well, I will think of whether to do it or not.

That' all.

Good luck..

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Double down on 11

[Blackjack] Double down on 11

  15:04    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

Every player must be excited.

Today's topic is 11-doubling.

As the basic strategy chart shows, doubling down on 11 is recommended when the dealer's face-up card is NOT Ace.

I conducted a Blackjack experiment on both 11-double vs D6 and 11-double vs D10.

This video consists of 20 scenes in total.

The playback time is about 10 min.

The Result of 11-double vs D6

The following graph shows the result based on the 100 data.

The winning rate except for a tie is 66%.

Then we would win at a rate of 2/3.

Is that as you expected?

The Result of 11-double vs D10

The following graph shows the result based on the 100 data.

The winning rate except for a tie is 46%.

Now I agree with players who are afraid of this doubling.

We don't have to do it every time, do we?

★Considerations★

When doubling down on 11 vs D's 2-10, we would win at a rate of 46-66%.

That's based on the experiments.

Since 11-double is the most attractive chance to us, we shouldn't miss it.

From the result, it's a bit disadvantageous to us against the dealer's 10.

If you have a hunch 10's card will be dealt, carry out the doubling down.

That' all.

Good luck for your 11-doubling.

Shout "Picture!" at the doubling.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Split a pair of 6.

[Blackjack] Split a pair of 6.

  10:16    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy
Are there any players who like 6's split?

This chart shows the basic strategy of Blackjack.

When the player's first hand is a pair of 6 and the dealer's face-up card is 2-6, split is recommended, following the strategy.

Since number 6 is the weakest in Blackjack, few players prefer 6's split with pleasure.

Should we obey the strategy?

I conducted an Blackjack experiment on both 66 vs D6 and 66 vs D2.

And also, recorded some good scenes on video.

The former part is about 66 vs D6.

The latter part is about 66 vs D2.

The playback time is about 20 min.

The Result of 66 vs D6

The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.

Looks disadvantageous to the players.

The probability of losing is almost the same as the first graph.

The winning percentages except for a tie 

are as follows:

Split 42%    Stay 43%

The chip's fluctuation (Bet amount: 1 chip every time)

Split -30 chips    Stay -14 chips

To sum up, stay is more preferable than split.

One more thing.

The 3-unit win means, for example, one is a double down hand and the other is a normal hand.
Splitting 6s and taking a card of 3, 4, or 5, we will be able to double down, following the BS.

This time, there's no feature to mention particularly.
Seems like gambling at black/red in roulette.

The Result of 66 vs D2

The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.

Let's be satisfied with even 'Stand off.'

It also shows the result of hitting 12 vs D's 2.

Following the BS, we should hit in this situation.

As we expected, it's not advantageous to us.

It also shows the result of standing on 12 vs D's 2.

It's obvious that we are likely to be beaten.

The winning percentages except for a tie 

are as follows:

Split 47%    Hit 35%    Stay 31%

The chip's fluctuation (Bet amount: 1 chip every time)

Split -4 chips    Hit -21 chips    Stay -23 chips

To sum up, split is the most preferable choice of the three.

One more thing.

There's no feature, neither.

★Considerations★

When splitting 6s vs D's 2-6, we would win at a rate of 42-47%.

That's based on the experiments.

We don't have to split 6s with reluctance.

That's all.

Hope it'll help.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Double down on 10

[Blackjack] Double down on 10

  8:12    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

Every player prefers this doubling to 9-doubling.

It's 10-doubling.

When the player's first hand is 10 and the dealer's face-up card is 2-9, double down is recommended in the basic strategy of Blackjack.

I conducted a BJ experiment on 10-double vs D9 & 10-double vs D6.
This video consists of 20 scenes in total.
The playback time is within 10 min.

The Result of 10-double vs D9

The following graph shows the result based on the 100 data.

The winning rate except for a tie is 44%.

Isn't it unsatisfying to us?

Considering its error, it would be 50% at the most.

I learned that we don't have to double down in this situation, but just hit.

The Result of 10-double vs D6

The following graph shows the result based on the 100 data.

The winning rate except for a tie is 64%.

Isn't it just as we expected?

We should obey the BS in this situation every time.

It's necessary for us to earn whenever we are likely to win.

★Considerations★

When doubling down on 10 vs D's 2-9, we would win at a rate of 44-64%.

That's based on the experiments.

Be careful when the dealer's upcard is 9.

The probability of 10's cards coming is NOT quite high.

Don't forget that it's about 31%.

Including Ace's cards, it's about 38%.

Then we cannot take those good cards (10, J, Q, K, A) more than 50%.

That' all.

Good luck for your 10-doubling.

Succeeding in taking Ace, you might have a wonderful day.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Hit 15, 16 vs D7, DA

[Blackjack] Hit 15, 16 vs D7, DA

  15:54    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

Should we surrender if allowed?

Most blackjack players annoy their hands.
For example, hard 15 or hard 16, etc.

When the player's hand is 15 and the dealer's face-up card is 7 or stronger, hit is recommended in the basic strategy.

This time, I conducted a blackjack experiment on both 15 vs D7 and 15 vs DA.

Besides, 16 vs D7 & 16 vs DA.

This video consists of 40 scenes selected from all the trials.
The former part is about hard 15, and the latter is about hard 16.
The playback time is about 15 min.

Result of Hit 15

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data each.

We would lose at a rate of 2/3.

We would lose at a rate of 4/5.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

vs Dealer's 7  31%   vs Dealer's Ace 15%

Result of Hit 16

It's similar to the 2nd graph (Hit 15 vs DA).

As we expected, we are unlikely to win in this case.

It's worse than the probability of winning one number on a dice.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

vs Dealer's 7  18%   vs Dealer's Ace 14%

★Considerations★

When hitting 15 or 16 vs D's 7-Ace, we would win at a rate of 14-31%.

That's based on the experiments.

The rate range is desperate to us.

If surrender is allowed, it's a good way to avoid an easy defeat.

I mean it's bust.

When hitting 15, the player busted 62 out of the 100 games.

When hitting 16, the player busted 78 out of the 100 games.

What hopeless hands they are!

I will play in casinos where surrender is allowed.

That' all.

Good luck for your disgusting hands.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Split a pair of 2

[Blackjack] Split a pair of 2

  22:09    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

If we earn a lot by splitting the pair, we may be so lucky.

In the BS of Blackjack, 2's split is recommended against the dealer's 2-7.

The other day, the experiment on 22 vs D7 was already done.

This time, I conducted another one on 22 vs D6.

This video consists of the two parts:

One is about 22 vs D7.

The other is about 22 vs D6.

The playback time is about 30 min.

The Result of 22 vs D7

The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.

Choosing split, the outcome is likely to be a tie.
In other words, the probability of our NOT losing is about 2/3.
Isn't it satisfying?

During the experiment, the player won 4 times (two doubling after the splitting).

It was an excellent win.

If he had chosen hit at that time, he would have regretted deeply.

The winning percentages except for a tie 

are as follows:

Split 55%    Hit 54%

The chip's fluctuation

Split +12 chips    Hit  +7 chips

To sum up, splitting 2s against D's 7 is better than hit.

The Result of 22 vs D6

The following two graph show the results based on the 100 data.

Since the dealer's face-up card is the weakest, isn't it good as we expected?

We would win at a rate of 1/2.

The winning percentages except for a tie 

are as follows:

Split 63%    Hit 49%

The chip's fluctuation

Split +64 chips    Hit  -1 chip

To sum up, splitting 2s against D's 6 is much better than hit.

One more thing.

Look at this graph.

The 3-unit win means, for example, one is a double down hand and the other is a normal hand.
Splitting 2s and taking a card of 7, 8, 9, or Ace we will be able to double down, following the BS.

Mentioning more about the graph above, the player succeeded in 3-unit winning 24 out of 35 times actually.
In addition, he won fourfold 7 out of 8 times.
Isn't it fantastic?

From this result, we should definitely split 2s vs D's 6.

★Considerations★

When splitting 2s vs D's 2-7, we would win at a rate of 55-63%.

That's based on the experiments.

Although we shouldn't split 2s vs D's 8, following the BS, the winning rate might be 50% or so.

I'll do that experiment some day.

That's all.

Good luck for your splitting of 2.

Bye.

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[Blackjack] Double down on 9

[Blackjack] Double down on 9

  21:51    Japanese Nokkie

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Blackjack Strategy

Can you double down on 9 aggressively?

In the BS of Blackjack, double down is recommended against the dealer's 3-6.

The other day, the experiments on 9 vs D3 & 9 vs D6 were already done.

This time, I combined the two experiments into one video.
The playback time is about 15 min.

The Result of 9 vs D3

The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.

Be careful when you've bet a lot.

The winning rates are completely same.

Hitting hand 9 and taking 2's card, the result occasionally differs.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

Double 54%    Hit 55%

The chip's fluctuation

Double +16 chips    Hit +10 chips

To sum up, it's difficult to say clearly which choice is better.

From the chip's fluctuation, doubling down would rather better.

The Result of 9 vs D6

The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.

Whether to win or not may depend on the dealer's final hand.
Even though the player takes a card of 10 and his hand has become 19, most players would be still concerned about the result.

The two graphs are completely same.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:

Double 61%    Hit 61%

The chip's fluctuation (Bet amount: 1 chip every time)

Double +38 chips    Hit +19 chips

To sum up, I can say that we should double down.

★Considerations★

When doubling down on 9 vs D's 3-6, we would win at a rate of 54-61%.

That's based on the experiments.

Then what about 11-doubling vs D's 3-6?

I bet the winning rates will be higher.

That' all.

Good luck for your 9-doubling.

Bye.

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