In this blog, there are lots of results gained by card game experiments. Blackjack, Pontoon, Caribbean Poker, etc.

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I'm a Japanese guy, Nokkie. I'm a cram school teacher and normally work in the evening. When I have time, I make a study of Blackjack through taking a test practically. I wanna become a smarter blackjack player in the future. I've been seeking for a convincing rule recently.
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2017年8月21日月曜日

[Blackjack] Hit 12


Blackjack Strategy

It's an annoying hand, isn't it?
hard 12 of the blackjack basic strategy
As the Blackjack basic strategy shows above, hit is recommended when the player's first hand is 12 and the dealer's face-up card is 2, 3, 7 or stronger.

Although the value difference between hand 11 and hand 12 is only 1 point, hand 12 is much weaker for the player.

I wonder how we would win at hitting 12.
To calculate the winning percentages of both 12 vs D3 and 12 vs DA, I conducted a Blackjack experiment.

This video consists of 20 scenes selected from all.
The playback time is within 10 min.


Result

The following graphs show the results gained by the 100 data each.
Result of hitting 12 against Dealer's 3
Unfortunately, the busting rate in hitting 12 about 31% in theory.
So the losing probability is quite high.

Result of hitting 12 against Dealer's Ace
The result is terrible.
I didn't expect it.

The winning percentages except for a tie

 are as follows:



vs Dealer's 3  30%   vs Dealer's Ace 16%


★Considerations★

If we follow the basic strategy in hitting 12, we would win at a rate of 16-30%.
That's based on the experiments.
The rate range depresses us, doesn't it?

If the dealer's upcard is Ace, can we choose surrender without hesitation?
The player's hand is 12 and it's not really hopeless.
Well, I will think of whether to do it or not.


That' all.
Good luck..
Bye.

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