[BJ Strategy Match] Defensive vs BS

[BJ Strategy Match] Defensive vs BS

  18:41    Japanese Nokkie

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Hi, there.

How was your weekend?
Did you go to casino and win enough there?

In my case, I was annoyed with my headache and took some rest.
I'm all right now and keeping this blog with pleasure.


Anyway, today's topic is about Blackjack strategies.
I examined how effective the basic strategy is, through an experiment.

As a strategy match, I compared the two strategies.

One is Defensive Strategy.
When the player's hand reaches 12 or more, he definitely stands against Dealer's 2-6, and he surrenders his hand 12-16 against Dealer's 7-Ace.
Besides, he never doubles down nor splits a pair.
Call the player Mr. Defensive.

The other is, needless to say, Basic Strategy.
We call the player Mr. BS.

Which strategy do you think is better to win?

First, I conducted the experiment with hole card style.

▼Experiment 1▼

Next, the experiment with no hole card style.

In this video, Japanese language is mainly used.

▼Experiment 2▼

Surprisingly, BS was NOT superior to Defensive as I expected.
The number of trials in total was 40.

Mr. Defensive's  winning percentage is calculated about 42% in total, except for a tie.
The chip's fluctuation is positive 2 chips (40→42).

The following graph shows the percentages considering a tie & surrendering.

On the other hand, Mr. BS's winning percentage is calculated about 42% in total, except for a tie.
It's a same percentage!
But the chip's fluctuation is negative 6 chips (40→34).

The next shows the percentages considering a tie.

I need to conduct the experiment to obtain more precise results.

Basically, I don't surrender at all.
However, I will have to change my mind if the credible result recommends surrendering.

Sometimes be aggressive, sometimes be defensive.
And then in what situation?
This is the problem.


That's all.
I hope you will be interested.
Don't be a stranger.
Bye.


Additional Writing

I collected more 60 data, and now have 100 data in all.

Mr. Defensive's  winning percentage is calculated about 36% in total, except for a tie.
The chip's fluctuation is negative 13 chip (100→87).

The following graph shows the percentages considering a tie & surrendering.

On the other hand, Mr. BS's winning percentage is calculated about 42% in total, except for a tie.
It's 6% better than the defensive strategy.
But the chip's fluctuation is negative 17 chips (100→83).

The next shows the percentages considering a tie.

From the results, it's difficult to say which strategy is better.

After all, we have to think of when to surrender.
Surrendering hand 16 against Dealer's 9,10 & Ace, it may help us not to waste our chips.

However, I still believe that hitting hand 16 against Dealer's 7 is better to win.
In this situation, I prefer taking a card of 2, because the probability of the winning would become higher sharply..

What do you think of choosing 'surrender'?


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