In this blog, there are lots of results gained by card game experiments. Blackjack, Pontoon, Caribbean Poker, etc.

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I'm a Japanese guy, Nokkie. I'm a cram school teacher and normally work in the evening. When I have time, I make a study of Blackjack through taking a test practically. I wanna become a smarter blackjack player in the future. I've been seeking for a convincing rule recently.
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2017年4月26日水曜日

[Pontoon,Spanish 21] 13 vs Dealer's 5


Can you hit it without hesitation?
hard 13 vs D5 in Pontoon

In the basic strategy of Pontoon, hit is recommended.
But many players choose stand as in Blackjack.

I conducted a Pontoon experiment to calculate the winning percentages for both choices.

▼Experiment▼


▼Precise Result▼
The following two graphs show the results based on the 100 data.
Pontoon Experiment Result (hard 13 vs D5)
The winning rate is just 1/4.
It's contrary to my expectation.
To be sure, the probability of losing at busted hand is 4/12 (33%) in theory.
Shouldn't we follow the BS?

Pontoon Experiment Result (hard 13 vs D5)
From the graph, we would win once in three times.
Since hand 13 is a rubbish hand, it cannot be helped, I suppose.


The results except for a time are as follows:

Winning Rate
Hit 28%    Stay 34%

The chip's fluctuation
Hit -40 chips    Stay -32 chips


To sum up, against Dealer's 5, standing on hard 13 is rather preferable to hitting it.


That's all.
I hope this article will be useful.
If you like, please give me comments, thanks.
Good luck for your gambling.
Bye.


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